A smart man once said:
All you CEO’s out there, do you want to know a great trick to see if your CIO/CTO is worth anything? Look for a copy of Gartner in their office and see if any of their recommendations have blindly come from Gartner. If so, fire them immediately. For the life of me I have spent a lot of cycles trying to figure out why anyone in their right mind considers Gartner the bible of technology in corporate America. Gartner has been wrong so many times over it’s sickening. Let me tell you what Gartner is. Gartner is a bunch of elitist wannabe geeks with MBA’s that look at technology from the dillusion prism of the technological equivalent of social justice, not free market principles.
Today, Gartner is predicting that worldwide smartphone sales will reach 468 million units in 2011, a 57% increase from 2010. Android is expected to further hold its lead and account for 49% market share by 2012. Microsoft’s Windows Phone is expected to increase to 10.8% by 2012, up from 4.2% in 2010.
The surprise figure from Gartner is the revelation that it too predicts Microsoft will cement a strong second place market share by 2015. IDC previously predicted that Windows Phone will account for over 20% market share in 2015, above Apple’s estimated 15%. Gartner’s figures follow a similar approach. Gartner says Microsoft’s Windows Phone will account for 19.5% market share by 2015, above Apple’s 17.2%. Windows Phone will also account for 215 million worldwide shipments by 2015.
The research firm’s estimates are based solely on Microsoft’s Nokia partnership. “Gartner predicts that Nokia will push Windows Phone well into the mid-tier of its portfolio by the end of 2012, driving the platform to be the third largest in the worldwide ranking by 2013,” says the firm. “Gartner has revised its forecast of Windows Phone’s market share upward, solely by virtue of Microsoft’s alliance with Nokia.”
That’s strange because in October of last year:
Gartner predicts the release of Windows Phone 7 will help bump Microsoft’s share of the worldwide market from 4.7% in 2010 to 5.2% in 2011, but says the company’s share will ultimately decline to just 3.9% by 2014.
There are so many different ways to say that Gartner never know what the heck they are talking about.
I come from the Enterprise tchnology (ERP) world and they have missed the mark silently so many times, it’ll make your head spin.
Here’s my prediction: By 2015, people will stop quoting Gartner.