Can Microsoft And Intel Drop The iPad Market Down To 50% In 2013? What Would It Take?

So apparently Taiwan-based ODMs are claiming that Intel and Microsoft are partnering together closer than ever to work to reduce the iPad’s huge share of the global tablet market. Right now it has about 70%, supposedly they hope to drop it below 50% by 2013.

The bigger question here is whether or not that is possible. Intel and Microsoft both have had less-than-great success in the mobile smartphone and tablet world, though both haven’t given up. Later this week, actually, Intel will launch its first Medfield smartphones in India and China.

Windows Phone isn’t a huge success but it is a very solid operating system that is finally starting to see some growth. So it’s clear that both still are very invested and interested in the tablet and smartphone scene.

When you think about it, is 20% really that much to ask for when it comes to about a year? Windows 8 is going to have ARM and x86 variants giving it the ability to have a wide price and model range, something the iPad doesn’t have.

I suspect that Windows 8 can actually accomplish this goal, but I don’t think Intel will have THAT much to do with it, to be honest. There is a reason why Microsoft went out of its way to port Windows to ARM. ARM just seems to work better as a mobile processor.

Of course you could argue that MS went out of its way so it would have the widest range of options and to better compete with Google, who soon would have Intel, MIPS, and ARM options (okay, so the Intel options are still arriving, not there yet).

So let’s talk about what it will take for Microsoft to knock down iPad to 50%:

Wide acceptance on an enterprise level. While iPad has become to become popular in the business world, it isn’t nearly as flexible of a platform, from an application and multi-tasking viewpoint, as desktop Windows can be.

This is where I believe Intel and Microsoft will shine together. If Windows RT Metro interface is well-received as a good touch option, businesses will consider an x86 machine, which will play nicely with the business’ existing custom applications and networking structure.

While there is certainly a profitable market for the enterprise, I’d still wager than the majority of iPads are used for more ‘casual’ uses like daily browsing, apps, games and such. I could be wrong though. On the casual side, Intel probably has less to offer in a tablet, but Windows 8 can still shine with ARM here.

One thing I’m curious about, too, is whether Windows 8 will steal sales from the iPad or is it more likely to steal from the Android tablet crowd? It has a similar multi-device, multi-range system to Google’s platform but is powered by the flexibility of Windows.

I really think this might appeal more to Android users than iOS users. When I bought my wife a tablet I considered going Win7 but it sucked for touch. So I went Android. There are probably many Android tablet owners that did the same kind of thing.

That’s my point of view on the lofty goal of knocking the iPad down to 50% in 2013. I’m actually more interested in everyone else’s ideas though. What kind of applications would Windows 8 need in order to show its a better option than iPad? What kind of price range would kind it the edge against Apple’s tablet?

Do you think Intel will be a large part of Windows 8’s tablet success, or will most sales be from ARM tablet devices?

Share your thoughts below.

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  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_5WJGC7242GFDP2QXANKF5WTMEA Rex

    I think Microsoft has a huge possibility to do just what they are saying.  I think their expectations could even be considered conservative.  The world is changing.  People are moving from regular computers to an “always online” mentality.  Yet at this point, full computers are still necessary.  A windows 8 computer as a kind of home server, would pair very nicely with Windows 8 tablets and Windows 8 phones.  This is the way I will go, I have already seen the possibilities, and I am excited in ways I haven’t been since the early days of the internet.  Windows 8 as a failure will still put out millions of copies in use just as terrible Windows ME and Windows Vista did.  This will still be a game changer in both the tablet and smart phone markets.  Think of it, RT apps run on your computer as well as your tablet and phone.  Documents you saved on your computer are instantly available on your phone or tablet.  There is almost no way this can fail.  Apple will incorporate this into their designs and likely not only be fine, but even make gains into the PC share (note, this doesnt hurt MS as the world will move from a couple computers in a household to everyone having multiple connected devices), but google is pretty much a dead fish unless they can find a way to integrate more.

  • MoreQuads

    I
    would think that the average reader would jump on the ‘ of course
    not”. MSFT can’t possibility knock APPL down to 50% of the
    tablet market band wagon in this time period. Now with strong
    partners like Intel and Samsung then price range will be the real
    deal. The tablet market seems to be in basicly 3 sections as I see
    it. (1) cheap tablets say $300 and under. I don’t see the Microsoft,
    Intel and Samsung team competing in this section. However, nor is
    Apple so it is at this time not really a section. If you take the
    central price (2) range of $300 to $600 then you may see some light.
    Speaking personally, I am not in love with Android, have personal
    issues with Apple and would happily buy a Windows based system that
    was capable on showing capability of Cell, Tablet and PC and worked
    well with touch screen. Now in this (2) price range you would have to
    see a tablet 64GB and a matching upper range system to have a
    chance. (3) The business class above $600 then this is the area that
    Microsoft could really take off. Now at this time I don’t see myself
    paying $1500 for 128GB tablet so again price is the key. In section
    (3) if Windows based tablet and I am talking about Windows 8 could
    dip to $800. $800 for a tablet that replaces the laptop and shares
    info with the Cell and links up with a business network or small
    business office computer, then look out. Consider that Apple is in
    the process of co-mingling their phones tables and computers to share
    UI. However, as you know Apple charges for their computer products.
    Microsoft however, sell their OS to the Lion’s share of the personal
    and business computer world. With that said, the (2) class could mean
    that anyone one with a $300 laptop, a $50 cell phone and a $600
    Windows tablet could put together a “system” if you like.
    So just around $1000. Now Apples prices would prevent any competition
    in this range. Finding Apples laptops possibility $1000 by itself
    (new) and a minimum of $500 for a very basic Ipad 16GB, and say $200
    for a new Iphone 8GB. The very thing that has been a huge money maker
    for Apple (selling 16GB storage for $100) and no expandable physical
    storage could be somewhat of an Achilles Heal for them in this
    battle, if indeed, it really is a battle.

    Timing
    is perhaps even more important. Ipads are a household word, and they
    are rapidly worming their way into organizations large and small. If
    Microsoft does not make a timely and bold move to get into the game,
    they are not likely to make much of a difference to Apples huge head
    start. Now with that said, if by the end of 2012, Microsoft and their
    playmates could launch a Hit OS, price aggressively in the (2) and
    (3) sections, then perhaps they could cause a turn around. Timing and
    price IMHO are the key. Give up some of the R&D costs in trade
    for volume for say the next 12 months. After that, if it works, then
    look for ways to to recoup the earned but not taken profits.
    Microsoft needs to coil like a Cobra, strike as quickly and inject a
    “got to have juice” into the buyer before the Apple train runs
    them over on the tracks as the fierce but fragile creature that they
    are in this game of catch up. When you spot the Super Bowl Winners
    last year a Mulit-Billion head start you need the “hail Mary” of
    all times.