We’ve heard all sorts of crazy analyst predictions about Windows 8.
Now Forrester is producing some figures of their own. According to the Forrester’s Frank Gillet, Windows 8, RT and Windows Phone 8 won’t be smash sensations overnight but they will help hold on to and solidify the existing market.
Many of the analyst reports we’ve seen are very negative, and while this one isn’t gushingly positive it at least seems somewhat more realistic. The idea is that it will be 2014 before Windows 8 truly takes hold, similar to how it took a while before Windows 7 truly came into full-swing against the aging Windows XP. What the newest Windows offering will do is stop the market bleeding that is going on right now, so says Gillet.
He also believes that by 2016, Windows Phone 8 could help push Microsoft’s smartphone market up to 14%. While this is still far from great, it is better than their current 3.6%. He also says about 27% of the tablet market will be controlled by Windows. The desktop world won’t change, regardless of how well Windows 8 is received, he says.
Unlike Mark Benioff’s “predictions”, these seem less crazy. I actually think they might be pretty close for Windows Phone 8, though I really believe Microsoft has a shot at a much bigger percent of the tablet market if they play their cards right.
I’m not saying that Windows Phone 8 couldn’t knock down Android in the next few years– it just seems less likely. It is more than possible for Microsoft to capture a larger chunk of the tablet space, though.We are already seeing solid sales from the Microsoft Surface and it isn’t even officially out yet.
The reality is that Windows 8 is a very different animal from previous Windows and even previous tablet operating systems. It is IMPOSSIBLE to accurately say how consumers are going to view them. Sure, we have an idea by now, but we really might not know for sure until sometime in 2013.
What do you think of Frank Gillet’s claims? Reasonable or just as far-fetched and off-the-mark as analysts like Benioff?