IDC says that Windows Phone will surpass Apple’s iPhone by 2016

Rick James would be proud.

Market analysts at IDC are estimating that the share of handsets running Microsoft’s Windows Phone will grow to take nearly 20 percent of the market by 2016.

This at the expense of Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android.

Results from the firm’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker released on Wednesday point to a marked five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46.2 percent between 2012 and 2016 for the Windows Phone platform citing Microsoft hardware partner Nokia’s growing strength in emerging markets.

Now here’s another interesting part:

IDC notes that Apple’s installed customer base allows little room for growth and estimates that demand for the iPhone will slow in the next five years with sales mainly driven by replacement cycles. The momentum seen by the iPhone 4S in 2012 will result in overall shipment growth but a small decline in market share is expected. By the end of 2016 Apple is seen as having a 19 percent share of the overall smartphone market.

Absolute nonsense. This assumes way too much knowledge about the future sales of iPhone 5 and newer versions of Android.

How the hell can anyone predict with that level of detail?

Oh well, I guess that’s why they’re IDC.


Please Leave Your Comments Below...

  • Steve

    I don’t see anything implausible about that 

  • Penta2100

    Well think about it, people who own IPhones probally already jumped the boat to Mac OS X, where as Windows 8 hasn’t came out yet. It is most likely not going to happen but it is still possible.

  • darkpr0fit

    Well you can always pull predictions out of the blue or your butt whichever comes first.