Paul Thurrott wrote an article which gave his opinion why RIM and Windows Phone may not have a chance. I’m going to give my opinion why I think they (at least one of the companies) do have a chance.

For one the PC is (even though not as much as it use to be) expensive while the cell phone (especially if you get it under contract) is cheap. People generally get a new cell phone after their contract runs out (usually after 2 years) so the cell phone is also disposable while people tend to keep their PC’s for 4+ years.

So you can’t really say because this happens with the PC industry, its going to happen with the cell phone industry.

Here is a theory I have in the light of RIM. Right now there are two main smart phone OS’. Google for the most part is loved, yes there are people that don’t like that they track you more than most companies but most people don’t care.

Then there is apple who even some their core audience has been getting a little annoyed with. Back when WebOS was coming out apple was still the loved company, they didn’t show their horns until later on with all the law suit mumbo jumbo, but now I think some people would love to move to a new phone away from apple. I already hear buzz from people who use Android and ios moving or showing interest in Windows Phone.

Also in a negative for Microsoft and Windows Phone. Its cool to hate Microsoft now. They’ve been trying to make phones for years and haven’t really hit is out of the park so people are negative when it comes to Windows Phone. Plus Microsoft which except for some products is the grandpa of tech and not in a good way.

They’re trying to fix that and I think they’re going in the right direction but they’re still stumbling with certain aspects of Windows 8, Windows RT and Windows Phone. They get so close but they make little errors here and there and they just miss it.

For instance they should have use Windows Phone as their tablet OS instead of Windows RT. Windows RT and 8 have the same look but RT and Phone both run on ARM and can’t run Windows desktop apps. Also the slight difference in look between Windows Phone and Windows 8 I think would have lead to less confusion. Sure maybe a Windows tablet would have had the same jokes that the ipad had (its just a big Windows Phone), but who cares.

So with that in mind, maybe people are looking for another type of phone and if RIM can make a good Blackberry phone then why not? Sure there will always be people who will stick with the brand they like or that they’re used to, but many people I think will switch to something new and fresh.

What do I think either of these companies can do to take market share from Google or apple? Well Microsoft is kind of going in the right direction again. They’re making it easy for developers to convert their apps from ios and Android to Windows Phone.

Also they’re making it easy for users to transfer their stuff from ios to Windows Phone. That’s a good step. If they add VPN to Windows Phone then that will be a good step for businesses. Windows Phone advertising has been pretty good and I’ve seen more TV shows using Windows devices as well.

The more they get their name and devices out there the more Windows devices will stick in peoples mind and will hopefully gain more interest. Even though people may not like it I think product placement in many ways is better than a commercial (for one you can’t fast forward product placement without missing something in the show you’re watching).

What can RIM do? I think they have the harder route. Even though Microsoft kind of has a stigma on it at the moment, RIM also has one. They’ve been promising BB10 devices for over a year and haven’t brought them out yet. People that use Blackberry phone still love them, but those numbers are getting smaller.

RIM really has to have a good OS. The issue I see with BB10 though is while Android look a little looked like ios if you bring up the apps menu or if you a page filled with apps, BB10 looks a lot like ios. I think this could really hurt RIM because apple is in law suite mode and could sue RIM to extinction.

Even though it looks like RIM may not have much of a chance apple is paranoid and they’re afraid of loosing what user base they have so I think they’ll sue RIM within the first (maybe 2) year BB10 comes out and unlike Samsung who has the money to fight RIM doesn’t. I also don’t think apple will settle for a licensing deal like they did with HTC, they’d want RIM dead.

So there is my rant. RIM has a chance but slight but I don’t think they’ll fail because RIM doesn’t have a chance as a phone developer, but because of apple. Meanwhile I’m still hoping Windows phone does well.

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  • Richard Edge

    I completely disagree with the comment that BB10 is a lot like iOS, it is nothing like iOS. It has a RTOS, the multi-tasking is night and day different from iOS. The hub and flow I/F is not matched or similar to anything else and Apps (even 3rd party apps) can be embedded into the hub (Evernote). Minimized apps are only vaguely similar to Windows live tiles and BB10 can run Android apps. The only similarity that BB10 has to iOS is that it has icons and touch.

    • Robert Kegel

      I was talking about the look, not functionality and icons is enough for apple to sue, look what it’s trying to do to Android.

  • Brenton Klassen

    You’re wrong that Microsoft should have made the Windows phone OS into a tablet OS. If they would have done that, who would have developed for it? What audience would it have had? Only way to get developers to write apps for a platform is to give them users. Microsoft leveraged their PC market to guarantee apps for the Windows store. And Windows store apps easily be ported to Windows phone.
    By the way, I like the idea of merging the desktop OS with a tablet OS for many other reasons as well.

    • Robert Kegel

      Since Windows Phone 8 and Windows 8 run on the same kernel I think it would be pretty easy to make apps that work on Windows 8 work on Windows Phone. The only thing to worry about is the size and making the apps fit the bigger screen. apple has done it between the iphone and ipad so why couldn’t Microsoft do the same? The reason I think they didn’t make Windows Phone into a tablet OS is they wanted full office to work on it but I don’t think they needed full office to work on it. Windows Phone 7 already has its mobile version of office that would have been fine.

      This may happen anyway. It looks like Microsoft might be letting bigger screen’s (up to 6.5″) use Windows Phone 8, so we may see smaller tablet like devices on the platform anyway.

      The main reason people are confused with RT is because it looks and acts so much like Windows 8 minus the desktop app support. If they used Windows Phone 8 ( or made RT look more like Windows Phone 8) then it would have cut down on a lot of the confusion. Consumers are very simple minded, they see 2 things that look similar and they expect them to have the same functionality. People would not expect to run desktop apps on Windows Phone 8 if it were on a tablet. I get questions all the time asking if RT will run specific desktop apps and I have to tell them RT won’t run any desktop apps except IE and Office which were made for RT. If Microsoft wanted an inexpensive, light OS to run on ARM tablets Windows Phone 8 is it.